2012 Broncos season prediction

As in past years, I am going to predict the Denver Broncos' final won-loss record based on the results of the first game.  In 2009 and 2010 I correctly predicted the win total both years.  In 2011 I was way off as I didn't anticipate the impact Tim Tebow would have (who did?)

I again see the 2012 opener as a very important game.  The playoff rematch against the Pittsburgh Steelers will tell a lot about the Broncos and the effectiveness of Peyton Manning.  I think this Sunday night's game in Denver will be a high scoring game on both sides.  The Broncos starting second year safety Rahim Moore against the Steelers passing attack has me worried.  I'm not convinced Moore is ready to be a starter.  The Steelers have one of the best deep passing attacks in the league, led by Ben Roethlisberger throwing to receivers Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace.

Pittsburgh has its own trouble in the secondary.  Starting safety Ryan Clark cannot play in Denver due to health risks because of the high altitude.  Clark's absence played a big part in Tim Tebow's 300+ yard passing day in the Broncos overtime playoff win over the Steelers in January.  Peyton Manning, coming off an impressive preseason showing vs San Francisco, is more than capable of having a big passing day against the depleted Steeler secondary.

If the Broncos beat Pittsburgh on Sunday night, I predict a 10-6 record and a division crown for Denver.  I see the Broncos winning three of their first four (all home games) which will give them momentum going into tough road contests at New England and at San Diego. 

If the Broncos lose to the Steelers Sunday night, I predict a disappointing 7-9 record.  Denver's schedule is extremely tough.  A loss to Pittsburgh will be followed by a loss to Atlanta on Monday night, and then another loss to Houston at home with a short week of practice.  The Broncos will be unable to recover from the 0-3 start.

Whatever happens Sunday night, I will not be there to see it.  I am missing my first home opener since 1966!  I will be away in Alaska this Sunday night;  I won't even see the game on TV.  While disappointed I am going to miss one of the most anticipated home openers in years, I'm hoping for a Broncos win.   I'm predicting a Denver victory will eventually lead to a home playoff game at Sports Authority Field in January 2013 - a game I will not miss!

Visit to Bronco Training Camp

On a hot Monday morning in late July I made my annual visit to the Broncos training camp at the team's practice facilities in Dove Valley.  Here are some pictures I took along with my impressions of the practice.

My son Andy and I arrived one hour early only to be greeted by a long line of fans waiting for the gates to open:

Soon we were inside the practice fields.  The Broncos allow fans to sit on a hill adjacent to one of the fields.  On this morning the sun was right in our eyes.  I did not bring sunscreen and had a nice sunburn to show for it afterwards!

  

We settled around the 20 yard line, which gave us a great view of the action later on.

The star of the show, of course, was Peyton Manning.  Peyton looked like his old self to me.  He started out a little slow but as the practice wore on he displayed his quick release and accuracy from the pocket.

 

Or working on the running game.  Here Peyton is handing off to Willis McGahee.

Peyton was engaged during the whole practice.  When not on the field he'd be discussing formations and strategy with the coaches:

 

Wide receiver Eric Decker made connections on and off the field.  I predict a big year for Decker!

Here Peyton is talking with ex-Colt teammate tight end Jacob Tamme:

The Broncos even had Peyton lineup at cornerback in one non-contact drill.  And of course after the play Peyton had some suggestions for Matthew Willis.  Peyton Manning is the most vocal practice player I've ever seen in my years of going to Bronco Training camp.

We did get hot sitting in the sun for 3 hours.  Thankfully the Broncos provided an onsite refreshment stand with bottled water and soft drinks for $1/bottle.

A team store was also open adjacent to one of the fields.

 

Back to the practice, let's take a look at some of the other players.  I heard an interview with safety Rahim Moore (#26) on radio station 104.3 while waiting for the practice to begin.  Rahim says he's much more comfortable this year, and the defense that coordinator Jack Del Rio is implementing is similar to the system Moore played in at UCLA.

Rookie quarterback Brock Osweiler, at 6' 7", was the tallest bronco.  Here Osweiler (#6) is shown next to 6' 5" Julius Thomas (#80).  I was impressed with Osweiler's accuracy and strong arm during the practice.  I thought he looked better than the other backup qb's (Caleb Haney and Adam Weber)

Rookie running back Ronnie Hillman is short with thick legs and quick moves.  He looked like he could be more than just a 3rd down back to me - he showed surprising power.

 

Don't write off Knowshon Moreno just yet!  Moreno participated in drills for the 1st time after offseason surgery and hooked up with Manning on short passes out of the backfield.  Moreno has good hands and can be a receiving threat in this offense.

 

Wide receiver Brandon Stokely adds a veteran presence.  Here he's talking with Demaryius Thomas and Matthew Willis.

For a closeup look at Bronco football attend a training camp session at Dove Valley.  I recommend it!

Inside look at Broncos' Dove Valley

Tonight I was treated to an inside look at the Denver Broncos training facility at Dove Valley along with 40 other members of the Denver Broncos Quarterback Club.  The Broncos hosted the Broncos Quarterback Club as a thank you for the many years of support the members have given the team.

It was a beautiful sunny July day in Denver as we approached the main offices of the Broncos:

Inside the lobby:

The Broncos championship banners were prominently displayed:

As well as the team's two Super Bowl trophies:

Next we were shown the Broncos weight room:

Our guide explained that 90% of the equipment is new for 2012 as the Broncos are implementing a new strategy for weight training:

Closeup look at one of the machines:

Then we were escorted outside for a look at the practice fields.  Two grass fields were well groomed in anticipation for the opening of training camp in a month:

Then it was off to the locker room and the team meeting rooms:

Inside a mural of all the Denver Broncos head coaches in franchise history was prominently displayed:

There are those Super Bowl trophies again (a second copy) right outside the locker room:

Our guide showed us team photos displayed on the wall from every Broncos squad:

We were not allowed to take photos inside the locker room.  It was a thrill to stand right in front of Peyton Manning's locker!

Next it was off to the team meeting and film room.  This is also where the Broncos hold major press conferences:

The walls are covered with more motivation:

We were the first members of the public to see the 2011 Denver Broncos highlight film.  30 minutes of memories from the amazing 2011 season, highlighted by the 80 yard TD pass from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas to beat the Steelers in overtime in a playoff thriller.

The highlight film featured the big plays of the 2011 season, with many comments from players in game action.  The future hope of Peyton Manning's arrival was emphasized.  "2011 was a good year, 2012 could be great!"

Overall the evening was a fascinating look at the inside workings of the Broncos.  The Denver Broncos Quarterback Club is one of the best kept secrets for Denver area fans.  Members are treated to exclusive events like tonight's, speakers from current players and media, and even a chance to see a live broadcast of the coaches show during the season.  See the club's website for more details and membership info.

I'm taking an awful risk Vader ...

With the Broncos acquiring Peyton Manning today the Star Wars character Grand Moff Tarkin (as Denver owner Pat Bowlen) comes to mind saying to John Elway, "I'm taking an awful risk Vader. This had better work!"

And the Manning acquisition is very risky for several reasons:

1. Manning is 36 years old coming off of missing an entire season due to a neck injury.

2. You don't see teams replacing a young quarterback in Tim Tebow who led the team to a division title and playoff win over the defending AFC Champions. With Tebow now likely to be traded, will he come back to haunt the Broncos?

3. Trading for an aging veteran quarterback has yet to lead a team to a Super Bowl title. Back in the 70's it didn't work for Joe Namath or John Hadl, and more recently it hasn't worked for Joe Montana or Brett Favre.

4. Tebow is extremely popular with the Denver fans.

Yes, for these reasons and more the Manning move is very risky for the Broncos. That said, I like it!

Broncos President John Elway was never afraid to take a risk in his playing days, often throwing the bomb unexpectedly for a big play. As a football executive in his first gig, Elway fired one of his Dad's best friends as coach of the Arena Football Denver Crush in what at the time seemed like a questionable move. Yet the new coach was to lead the Crush to the championship.

I like that the Broncos are focused on winning the Super Bowl. Not just on more division titles. Not just on a playoff win here and there. Manning is the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As exciting as Tim Tebow was in the 2011 season, I still have doubts Tebow can lead a team to the title with his physical style of play and erratic passing.

And is the move really that risky?? If Manning gets hurt or fails to meet expectations, all the Broncos are out is a huge chunk of guaranteed money in Manning's contract. They'll still have all their draft picks. I think the Redskins Mike Shanahan trading three #1 draft choices and a #2 for the unproven quarterback Robert Griffin III is a far riskier move.

Another line comes to mind from the Star Wars movies. Bronco coach John Fox in the role of Obi Wan saying to Elway/Yoda in regards to Tebow's disappointing performance in the New England playoff loss, "That boy is our last hope."

"No", Elway replies, "there is another ..."

Remembering CU Football with my Dad

In 1968 at the age of 12 I was a rabid Denver Bronco fan. As I wrote about in a previous post I bought Bronco season tickets with my friend Greg that year (tickets I still own to this day).

My Dad was never that much into the Broncos, though. Instead University of Colorado football was his favorite spectator sport. In the late 60's and early 70's he took me to a number of games at Folsom Field on the CU campus. Back then the Buffs had discount tickets for sale at 9 a.m. on game days. My Dad and I would leave our south Denver home early on Saturday morning to make sure we'd be in line to get a chance at these tickets.

"I always liked the college game better," my Dad would tell me when comparing the CU experience to the Broncos. "I like the enthusiasm of the college kids," he said.

The CU Buffs in the late 60's and early 70's had some very good teams - with much better won-loss records than the Broncos. While going to Buff games with my Dad did not change my preference for pro football, I came to learn that going to CU games was pretty cool, too! We saw some great players on those Colorado teams, like the Anderson brothers and Cliff Branch. I remember a high scoring 1969 game against Kansas State that had more offensive fireworks than any Bronco game I had seen (the Buffs won that day 45-32).

We always sat past the goal line on the east side of the stadium (section 121). In a family with five kids I didn't get that much alone time with my Dad, except on those CU football Saturdays. With our tickets in hand at 9 a.m., we'd talk for hours as we waited for the 1:30 p.m. kickoff. Just me and my Dad. I remember after one game my Dad got lost driving home (he wasn't the best at following directions), and we ended up in this little town called Louisville. We called home from a pay phone outside a gas station to tell Mom we'd be late for dinner.

I cherished those CU football Saturdays with my Dad. Years later, in the mid 80's, I found myself living in that little town we had stumbled upon years before. As a young software engineer working at Storage Tech and living in Louisville, I would frequently drive up to Boulder for game days. Watching CU football rise to prominence under Bill McCartney was a thrill in those years. My Dad didn't go to any games in the 80's. Except for one.

On October 28, 1986 I treated my Dad to the CU/Nebraska game. I splurged and bought sideline tickets. I drove down to Denver to pick him up. We had lunch out together, just like old times. I wanted to thank him for all those CU football games he had taken me to in my childhood, and the Buffaloes did not disappoint us that day. Nebraska came into the game ranked #2, but CU upset the Cornhuskers 20-10. This still is the greatest Colorado game I have ever attended in person, and my Dad and I loved every minute of it.

There will be no more CU football games for my Dad, as he passed away last week at the age of 90. I will always remember those Fall afternoons at Folsom Field as some of the best times I had with him.

A new addition to the top 12 Bronco plays of all time

What a game yesterday! The Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas winning TD pass in overtime has to crack my top 12 list of all time Bronco plays. I posted these videos in 2010 on different blog posts after going through some old video tapes. I'd rate the Tebow to Thomas TD around 5a on this list:



I saw #12, #9, #7, #6, #2, and now #5A in person (yes I was in the North Stands yesterday - the biggest thrill at the new Mile High since Champ's big pick of Tom Brady #7)


Here again is my list of the previous top 12 bronco plays of all time:

Craig Morton throws the clinching touchdown to Jack Dolbin on December 24, 1977 to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Broncos first playoff game ever:



#11: John Elway throws a touchdown pass to Ricky Nattiel on the Broncos first offensive play in Super Bowl 22:




#10 Gradishar's Long TD. Randy Gradishar intercepts a pass from Cleveland's Brian Sipe and runs 93 yards for a touchdown - the longest interception return for a td in Bronco history:



#9
Louie Wright returns a field goal blocked by Dennis Smith to beat San Diego in Overtime in this 1985 game:



#8 Immaculate Deflection



#7 Champ picks off Brady



#6 Morton to Moses AFC Championship Game



#5 Elway to Jackson to end "The Drive"



#4 Elway to Rod Smith Super Bowl 33




#3 Jim Turner scores a TD



#2 Floyd Little makes a great catch after being "fired"



#1 The Helicopter and post game celebration, Super Bowl 32



which led to:

Broncos/Steelers playoff history

The Broncos are in the playoffs for the first time since January 2006. All time Denver and Pittsburgh are 3-3 in the playoffs in their matchups. A look back at those games:

Dec. 24, 1977 - AFC Divisional - Denver 34, Pittsburgh 21

This is the one I wrote about on Christmas Eve, and still one of my favorite Bronco playoff wins. Why? Because it was the first, and because the 70's Pittsburgh team was one of the best in NFL history.

Dec. 30, 1978 - AFC Divisional - Pittsburgh 33, Denver 10

The rematch the next year. This one wasn't even close, and Pittsburgh went on to win the Super Bowl. I remember an awful official's call in this one. Broncos cornerback Steve Foley goes up with the Steeler's John Stallworth at the back of the end zone to contest a Terry Bradshaw throw. Both players were out of bounds. The ref ruled Foley pushed Stallworth out and called it a td. Foley was going for the ball, not pushing Stallworth. Still this call didn't matter in the big picture. The Steelers were clearly the better team.

Dec. 30, 1984 - AFC Divisional - Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17

John Elway's first home playoff game as the Broncos won the division that year. This one was a bit of an upset, in a playoff series filled with surprises. I remember Elway throwing an interception close to the goal line and chasing down the Steeler player, tackling him before reaching the other goal line. Even though the Broncos lost, that play showed me Elway's heart for the game.

Jan. 7, 1990 - AFC Divisional - Denver 24, Pittsburgh 23

On paper this looks like one of the best games of the series, yet it didn't have the impact on me as the other five Bronco/Steeler playoff contests. Playing at home, the Broncos fell behind early 10-0. The Steelers were led by future Bronco QB Bubby Brister and current Tebow critic Merril Hoge (Hoge had a good game with 120 rushing yards, a td, and 8 receptions). The Broncos came back to win this one in the 4th quarter.

Jan. 11, 1998 - AFC Championship - Denver 24, Pittsburgh 21

The best game of the series for this Bronco fan. The Broncos were underdogs going into this AFC title game in Pittsburgh and with good reason. Denver had lost to the Steelers 35-24 in December and not many expected the Broncos to win in the same venue only a few weeks later. But led by Terrell Davis' 139 rushing yards and some clutch throws by Elway in the 4th quarter, the Broncos won.

Jan. 22, 2006 - AFC Championship - Pittsburgh 34, Denver 17

One of the most significant losses in Bronco history, and a game that still has ramifications to the current day. The Broncos were favored, Big Ben was hurting for the Steelers, and whoever won was going to beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl 2 weeks later. The Broncos lost, which led to Denver drafting Jay Cutler to eventually replace Jake Plummer at quarterback. If Mike Shanahan wins this game, and goes on to win the Super Bowl, does Pat Bowlen fire him after a disappointing 2008 season? I think not. 3 Super Bowl rings would have given Shanahan another year.

Today I see while the Steelers are favored the Broncos always have a chance playing at home. I also don't think this Pittsburgh team is as strong as the Super Bowl runnerup Steeler team of last year, or the great Steeler teams of the past. Could we see another surprise playoff result in this series? Stay tuned.